Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow of what it is today. There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was a fraction of what it is at present. No one thought you would every be able to trade a billion or more shares in one day. Of course that was in the old days when they had tickers and the word digital was something you did with your fingers.

Now we have world markets. There seems to be a stock exchange in almost every country. Did you know there is a stock exchange (of sorts) in Baghdad? I have not heard if they are back in business now that the war is over.

It is kind of amazing that with all these new traders and with all the varied stocks in every part of the globe that market mechanics would have changed. They have not.

As a technical analyst and trader (I was an exchange member and floor trader for 17 years) I still see the same trading patterns I saw 30 years ago. Wouldnt you think with this tremendous expansion that something would be different? It isnt. Why?

The reason is very simple. People dont change. The basics of the market fear and greed still dominate. Emotions have not differed in thousands of years. As far back as recorded history people have reacted in almost the same way.

The emotions of traders can be plotted and you can see it in the charts that are printed out each day to show the price action of the market. Once an upward trend sets in people begin to buy, putting the market higher attracting more buyers until the greater fool application has run its course.

In the years I have been trading I have seen many new technical indicators. When you think about it almost all of them are based on the emotions of the mass of investors, even such simple indicators as moving averages. As a continuing student of the market I have studied and have used many of them. I dont know any successful investor who does not use them.

A broker or financial planner who does know understand and use these indicators is doomed to failure. If anyone in the financial field every says they dont work you can be sure he is a loser because he has not taken the time to learn his trade. He is worse than a carpenter who does not know how to use a hammer and saw.

A good technician can go to any exchange in the world, not know the language and still make money.

Stock charts are like EKGs that doctors read to see how your heart is doing. Some doctors can understand them and other have not learned.

The basic principles of trading have not changed over the years even though the market is many times larger than it was because people have not changed. Whether you invest on your local exchange or globally everything remains the same.

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.